The First Debate

OK.  It's over.  One down two to go, plus the veep debate in St. Louis on Thursday.

(I had been running odds of about 1 in 3 that Palin would drop out of the race before the debate, but McCain gave her "maverick" props during tonight's debate, so that drops the odds to about 1 in 5)

The pundits on the collective cable channels are tearing it apart bit by bit, which is their job, but in the end I think it all sorta falls on the purples - the undecided (Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight: "Really, I think a lot of pundits go about watching the debate in the wrong way. Namely, they're paying too much attention to it. That's not how most people watch the debate.").  There aren't too many people, red or blue, that are going to change their vote based on this debate.  I thought Obama did a stand-up job & displayed the poise, intelligence and diplomacy necessary to be commander-in-chief.  McCain was a typical Republican, brash and offensive with little interest in recognizing any positive characteristics of Senator Obama.  That sort of thing will likely play just fine with his demographic.  So be it.

What about the purples, though?  What did they think about the debate?  Will it make a difference?  

Probably not.

From MyDD:

My first thought: Think 1980, Ronald Reagan getting a major bump just from standing next to Jimmy Carter. Think 2004, John Kerry getting a major bump during the fist debate standing next to George W. Bush. The question is whether the candidate newer to the scene can stand toe-to-toe with the candidate longer on the national scene, and clearly on this front Barack Obama was able to speak as forcefully as John McCain. In this regard, Obama passed the most important test of the night. And to reiterate a point I made earlier, John McCain sounded like a Senator while Obama looked like a President.

And to take a step back, remember this: It is McCain who is losing this race right now, trailing in the national polling and in the statewide polling, and thus is was McCain who needed a huge night. He didn't get it, even on his home territory, and thus it was a missed opportunity.

The Atlantic’s James Fallows:

Unless it happened when I glanced away, up until this moment, 77 minutes into the 90-minute debate, John McCain has not once looked at Obama — while listening to him, while addressing him, while disagreeing with him, while finding moments of accord. This is distinctly strange — if anyone else notices. Obama is acting as if this is a conversation; McCain, as if he cannot acknowledge the other party in the discussion.

David Gergen on CNN:

John McCain needed a clear victory tonight. I think a tie was not in his interest. He is behind. And this is his best subject night ... I think he needed a clear victory tonight and that eluded him

Robert Shrum on Huffington Post:

Barack Obama was crisp, reassuring and strong -- in short, presidential, as he has been throughout the financial storm of the past two weeks. McCain was not as bad as he has been recently; but much of this debate was fought on what was supposed to be his high ground. As the encounter ended, Obama not only controlled the commanding heights of the economic issue -- and he not only held his own on national security -- but clearly passed the threshold as a credible commander-in-chief. McCain kept repeating that Obama doesn't "understand." But he clearly did. McCain made up no ground. That's similar to what happened in 1960 when Nixon ran on the slogan "Experience Counts" but found it didn't count that much when voters decided JFK was up to the job after the side by side comparison they saw in the first debate.